It’s the beginning of September and parents across the UK are experiencing the back-to-school period like never before. Not only are children and young people across the country tentatively returning to school after a considerable time away, so too are many workers who have been at home since March. This summer was a summer like no other and many will no doubt find comfort in a return that bears some semblance of normality. But do we want every aspect of pre-Covid work to return? No doubt many will have enjoyed swapping four-hour commutes, and soul-less office complexes for more time with the family, and the opportunity to choose where and how to work. The old norms of offices stacked high and packed commuter trains in many ways does feel antiquated and there has been an increasing rhetoric around workers wanting to retain new practices instead of giving them up.  At DG Cites we are experienced in identifying and exploring the impacts of trends and change, so we thought we would take a look at some of the insights and likely implications around COVID-19.

At an individual level this may not feel hugely radical or disruptive, but when we look at the macro scale the impact of more home-working its transformative effect becomes clear. The latest data from the Centre for Cities High Street Recover Tracker highlights that many UK city centres are unable to tempt back citizens and commuters to work and play[1]. In fact, the UK is some-way behind its European neighbours: just over a third (34%) of UK white-collar workers are back at their office desk, compared to 83% in France and 76% in Italy. The UK has been slower to lift restrictions, but if these trends continue it could have a huge impact on cities and their economies, as jobs become increasingly digital – able to be conducted anywhere and at any time, in communities outside of city centres and the urban core.

The rapid switch to digital working during to the pandemic can be seen as an inflection point in how we conceptualise organisations, white-collar “knowledge work” and the nature of cities which rely on the intangible service sector so heavily. If digital working was rapidly adopted and broadband infrastructure (amongst others) was able to maintain basic operations, should we consider this the new normal? And does this suggest the end of city centres as the location of white-collar work?

Commuter towns picking up business, as city centres struggle.

Pandemic disruption has seen footfall in many city centres collapse as commuters and citizens stay away. The result is that many retail and hospitality businesses which serve white-collar workers will continue to struggle or close entirely – further changing the nature of our high streets. If the return to city centres remains subdued it’s likely that large urban centres may lose out to smaller commuter towns which have more capacity for retail and hospitality businesses and an increased demand from home working white-collar workers. In small industrial towns where manufacturing has given way to low-skill retail jobs, COVID-19 is an opportunity to diversify local economies, and retain human capital often lost to large urban centres, reshaping cities and their feeder towns. [2] 

Data from flexible workspace landlords appears to show there may be some longer-term changes due to COVID-19 with the city-centre HQ model giving way to satellite regional offices, as workers adapt to new ways of working (e.g. little or no commute, additional family/recreational time).[3] Clearly more data is needed, but this could be one of the effects of the crisis. It isn’t the end of city centres, but they’re likely to look different in the future.

Changing working-patterns meaning offices and the urban space will change

Another key area for city leaders and developers to consider is how the relationship that white-collar commuters have with city centres is likely to change. Flexible-workers who pre-COVID worked one day at home may shift to flexible-workers with one day in the office. This is likely to have profound impacts on the way commuters interact with the space in which their office is located. In the future a 1-day-a-week office user may use commuting days as social time, increasing the need for spaces for interactions and connecting– changing the nature of offices as well as the organisations and services around them.

Demand for office space for many large organisations was weak before the pandemic, as flexible working was increasingly adopted. Some predict that post pandemic many firms may even opt for desk space for 50% of the workforce, now that they’ve seen that remote working is effective.[4] Many office landlords will be concerned at the potential for a steep decline in demand for space.

Public transport post-pandemic: putting personal space at a premium

Data from the Department for Transport shows that since the 1960s public transport usage has struggled to keep pace with the growth in car, van and taxi use.  While rail journeys in Great Britain increased by 170% between 1960 and 2018, bus journeys declined by 62% across over the same period. The car dominates as the method of transport to get to work (68%) whilst rail (10%), bus (7%) and walking (10%) lag far behind.[5] Great Britain is still enthralled to the privately owned car, and it’s hard to see how COVID-19 wont further entrench this.

Changes in public transport mode differ across the country. Outside of London bus use has declined by over 1.5 billion per year journeys between 1985 and 2018, whilst over the same period nearly 1 billion additional journeys per year are being taken in the capital. Of course, London is a different case to the rest of the country: pre-Covid 80% of workers and non-workers entering central London did so using rail-based transport, and less than three in ten (27%) travel to work in Greater London by car.[6] Public transport is clearly vital, but COVID-19 has seen London tube and London bus journeys plummet and remain low, whist cycling rates have enjoyed an increase, large at first, but which has now steadied out. Concerns over cleanliness and capacity are just some of the reason why many workers may be steering clear for the foreseeable future.

Too soon to tell

It’s difficult to predict the long-term effects of the pandemic on cities, but it’s clear that the crisis continues to test the resilience of urban centres and their communities. As urban systems adapt, absorb and learn from the effects of the pandemic, there will be opportunities to re-invest and re-develop, taking into account new norms like increased remote working that have surfaced as a result. In the meantime, city leaders and the communities they serve, will need to be vigilant to future disruptions and shocks, and look to continue to manage, mitigate and learn from the pandemic as it continues to play out.

At DG Cities we specialise in helping developers and local authorities understand trends and long-term behavioural shifts.  To explore how COVID-19 is changing your city or development and how best to navigate those changes, drop us a line at [email protected]. 

[1] Centre for Cities. (2020) High Street Recovery Tracker. Accessed: https://www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker

[2] Kemp., L. (2020) How small towns are adapting to adversity during COVID-19. Apolitical. Accessed: https://apolitical.co/en/solution_article/how-small-towns-are-adapting-to-adversity-during-covid-19

[3] IWG (2020) UK office demand ‘shifting to suburbs’ amid COVID-19 crisis. Guardian. Accessed: https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/aug/04/uk-cities-suburban-covid-iwg-home-working

[4] Scroders. (2020) What impact is COVID-19 having on global cities? Schroders. Accessed: https://www.schroders.com/en/insights/economics/qa-what-impact-is-covid-19-having-on-global-cities/

[5] Department for Transport (2019) Transport Statistics: Great Britain 2019. Department for Transport. Accessed: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/870647/tsgb-2019.pdf

[6] Ibid