As record-breaking temperatures scorch Europe and expose the dangerous vulnerabilities of our infrastructure, the urgent need for comprehensive climate strategies has never been clearer. The focus needs to shift from individual crisis management to systemic solutions. By applying a Behavioural Systems Mapping lens at the neighbourhood level, can we dismantle systemic barriers and leverage local community connections to build lasting heat resilience? Director of Research & Insights, Ed Houghton puts the method to the test…
This week, much of Europe has been subject to extreme temperatures. In England the hottest ever June day was recorded in Gosport, Hampshire on Wednesday where the mercury hit 36.1 degrees Celsius. As a ‘heat dome’ settled over Europe, dangerous temperatures have had major impacts on lives – and in tragic cases have caused fatalities, driving up emergency call-outs as the most vulnerable in society have struggled. There has been little let up as the week has gone on: infrastructure has buckled, workplaces and schools have closed and many stayed home, only to find little respite in UK housing stock not built for temperatures in the late 30s.
It may come as some surprise, but in cities such as London there has been, until this week, very little I the way of a clear strategy to deal with such extreme temperatures. And whilst science has proven the ever-increasing likelihood of extreme weather events due to climate change, policy-makers have been slow to put in place plans to help manage and mitigate such events.
Only this week, London published its Heat Ready London plan, the capital's first-ever comprehensive plan designed to protect the city from the escalating threat of extreme heat. The plan highlights the sheer scale of the city's vulnerability, noting that approximately one million London homes, along with more than 1,300 schools, 60 hospitals, and 351 care homes, are currently located in high-risk areas for overheating.
Heat Ready London provides some clarity on the steps the Mayor will take to realise the vision of a city resilient to weeks such as this: protecting the most vulnerable people, retrofitting existing buildings to stay cooler, expanding access to public cooling spaces, and fortifying critical infrastructure. Because extreme heat disproportionately impacts those living in poorly designed homes or areas lacking green space, the plan frames climate resilience as an issue tied to inequality in our communities.
There is a clear framing of the systemic barriers that shape how extreme heat impacts us: those with access to transport can easily get to cool spaces, those with disposable income can spend time in recreational spaces such as cinemas, whilst many have little means to cool their homes, and for many on low incomes in social housing, the housing stock is not prepared for temperatures. To overcome these issues, we need to use a systems lens on the issue of extreme heat.
Shifting the lens from individual to system
Moving to a systems perspective is a powerful way to reframe an issue as complex as extreme heating. And to build resilience that is effective, it isn’t enough to act as individuals – instead, there must be real change at the level of organisations, through policies and practices, as well as into the cultural norms of behaviours that must change over time. Building communities resilient to heat is something all parts of our communities must collaborate on to make real change.
That’s why we think there might be value at rethinking extreme heat at the level of neighbourhoods. The neighbourhood is the level at which many people and families spend their daily lives – how people access local services, go to school and places of worship, and live with families and friends, building close communities. Important social and cultural phenomena also exist within close communities, within neighbourhoods – social cohesion and connection, how close people feel to their neighbours and their community, and individual histories and ancestry can also mean that mean people have strong bonds within neighbourhood spaces.
This is the level where we should build resilience.
The Behavioural Systems Mapping method is one way we’ve been exploring behaviours through a systems lens. As our blog on our work on digital inclusion highlights, there are many ways that this method can help communities to rethink the nature of a challenge and explore the steps they could take. And given the method’s value as an exploratory tool to understand the nature of an issue, this week we thought we’d trial it on a theoretical neighbourhood experiencing extreme heat.
What our Behavioural Systems Map tells us about managing extreme heat
Working as a team we rapidly mapped the actors, behaviours and drivers that shape how a neighbourhood will respond to an extreme heat scenario. We captured ways in which we each experience extreme heat, as well as the steps that we’ve seen policy makers and important institutions, such as the NHS or Met Office, play a role in responding to the extreme heat we’ve experienced this week. We played through as a simulation exercise what a map could look like – and through the process came up with key themes that help to categorise behaviours and make the map more tangible.
Below is the map we built:
What did we discover?
What we found from mapping was threefold.
Firstly, the sheer size and scale even for a neighbourhood example meant that the scenario required many actors, each with many behaviours. We quickly realised it would be useful to collapse behaviours and actors together where possible to make the map more actionable, but being careful not to dilute.
Secondly, there are many potential leverage points (points where we could expect to take action to change the system) that exist across different actors – from the NHS communicating information, through to Local Authorities supporting community organisations to share advice and check in on elderly people.
And finally, overlaying the Capability, Opportunity and Motivation model of behaviour (COM-B) is a great way to create a better understanding of what shapes behaviour in this scenario, and importantly, what could work as a more targeted intervention to tackle the specific driver of behaviour in play – e.g. improving knowledge of home cooling, a clear capability (skills) issue.
This type of mapping is very useful for showing complexity – as you can see. It makes a major systemic challenge more tangible, breaking it down into parts where change becomes more visible.
But we’ve only really built Version 0.1. This is a sketch from our own understanding and reading on the topic, but by no means is this a complete map – in fact, there never will be a complete map. Instead, this is a useful starting block from which dialogue and conversations can build, with experts and those experiencing the impacts of extreme heat. This, we think, is the real benefit of Behavioural Systems Mapping. As an exploratory tool for helping us to navigate an issue and find our way through. Just like a map should do.